The second wave is already here. A bigger wave than the first, and more insidious, even subversive. It’s not a second wave of infections, but an economic one triggered by COVID-19. And this is likely to affect even more people and livelihoods.
Our Trade Minister just announced that Singapore just had out worst quarter in GDP, ever. Economic recovery will take some time, not likely to be smooth, with recurring waves of infections and disruptions further down the road. Even recovery will be uneven across sectors, if ever. Some will recover, and others permanently changed.
There are four ways that things have irrevocably changed, for the worse, for now:
- Geopolitical tensions/competition. The merits of free trade are being questioned. Countries close in on themselves and stop being open to working together. With more closed borders, what can individuals do more locally to survive?
- Global companies are re-organising their production and supply chains, from just-in-time efficiency to just-in-case resilience. This means diversification and not banking on one site/country. More taxations by government who are spending more than earning, and being pressured to do more business locally than overseas, will also dry up opportunities. As companies move to being resilient, how do we as individuals evolve too, to be more resilient or even anti-fragile?
- The nature of jobs had changed. COVID had shown us that remote working is possible. That can mean more global opportunities, but companies no longer need to hire locally, and people from other countries can do our jobs remotely, especially PMET jobs. It actually means more competition than more opportunities. How many of us are ready to compete with global talent for what used to be local jobs?
- Likely more friction between groups who have more versus those who have less, local versus foreign, citizens vs non-citizens. Distribution will be even more uneven. How might we not death spiral into going at each others throats, but nurture greater cooperation and care for one another?
He called for Singapore to start right now to build a new economy. It’s a grim forecast, and rightly so. We cannot wait for COVID to blow over, unlike what many are hoping for. This isn’t the Asian or global financial crisis, we can’t hunker down and wait for things to improve. Waiting will mean we will be in worse shape for the future.
We’re not returning to a pre-COVID world. Let that sink in for a minute.