I finished another book about antifragility - The Anti-Fragility Edge: Antifragility in Practice, by Sinan Si Alhir. Looks like I can’t get enough of it! I’m really enamoured by how broadly applicable this idea is - in work, career, life, happiness, health. The potential seems quite limitless at this point, because most of what we encounter in life are complex systems, after all. So I’m keen to learn as much as possible about this, and try to apply them later on.

More exploratory posts to come.

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The Antifragility Edge: Antifragility In Practice

Why is antifragility important in this VUCA world

Today, business organizations experience unprecedented levels of disruption (turbulence) and can only expect the unexpected. While they must perform in a world characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA), their ability to observe, orient, decide and act (OODA) is no longer enough to survive and thrive amid disorder. In this new chaotic reality, while agility is essential for adapting and surviving, antifragility is essential for evolving and thriving. Business organizations must embrace this new reality and emerge stronger. 

Harder to predict black swans, easier to calculate fragility

As the world becomes increasingly interconnected and interdependent, black swan events — large-scale, unpredictable, and irregular events of massive consequence —are inevitably becoming more prominent. It is far more reasonable to figure out whether something is fragile than to calculate the risks and probabilities of rare events that may harm it. 

The Cynefin framework for recognising the type of problem environment you are in

As a result of the proliferation of VUCA, non-predictive decision-making while using OODA in simple or obvious, complicated, complex and chaotic environments (the Cynefin framework) is essential. For business organizations to embrace this new chaotic reality and emerge stronger, they must embody an antifragility edge. The Cynefin framework is:

 • Simple/obvious problems = known knowns, like routine activities. Sense-categorize-respond.

 • Complicated problems = known unknowns, like activities needing expertise. Sense-analyze-respond.

 • Complex problems = unknown unknowns, like activities needing creativity and experimenting. Probe-sense-respond.

 • Chaotic problems = unknowables, like activities needing immediate action and courage to explore. Act-sense-respond.

What (anti)fragility is

Fragility and antifragility correlate with potential harm or gain from disorder. Fragile entities are penalized and antifragile entities benefit from exposure to disorder, while robust entities simply remain in existing state. Disorder causes stress, which shocks things. We cannot completely track or measure the possibility of these shocks in a VUCA world. Antifragile entities love disorder and a measure of stress. Stress should be considered to be anything that causes energy to be applied or a struggle to unfold in order to advance and achieve an outcome, based on intention and impact. Epigenetics showed that 50% of our DNA has been encoded to be activated by the environment, and 50% are impervious to change and impact. This means we can activate change on DNA level.

Characteristics of (anti)fragility

Fragility and antifragility are degrees on a spectrum (relative terms, not quite absolute) and are properties of an entity relative to a given situation, limited to a specific source (of disorder) and range of exposure (or amount of stress). An entity that has more downside in a given situation is more fragile in relation to that specific source and an entity that has more upside in a given situation is more antifragile in relation to that specific source. Fundamentally, a fragile entity wants tranquility and experiences more downside than upside from disorder; an antifragile entity grows and experiences more upside than downside from disorder (up to a certain level of stress); and a robust entity doesn’t care too much. Additionally, the variety and diversity of the sources of stress as well as the amount of stress will determine the fragility and antifragility of an entity. Additionally, the stress must be acute rather than chronic and must be distributed over time so as to only harm the entity to a manageable degree. The degree of stress must be such that the entity can gain from it, and the entity must have sufficient time to recover from the harm and gain from the stress. In addition, by denying or suppressing stress, an entity becomes more fragile, and with the right amount of stress, the entity becomes more antifragile. Fragilizing, causes by depriving things of disorder and their natural ability to heal, is the process by which things become more fragile. And antifragilizing, which is causes by stressing things (specific source of stress and range of exposure), is the process by which things become more antifragile. Additionally, fragilizing occurs when risk and fragilizing are transferred between things. It’s far more reasonable to figure out whether something is more fragile or more antifragile than it is to calculate the risks and probabilities of rare events that may harm it.

Analogy: Antifragility in your life situations

Consider your life and any situations that cause you stress? What is the source of the stress? What level of stress is tolerable and does not impact you? What level of stress, if any, might harm you? What level of stress, if any, might you gain from? Is the stress acute rather than chronic so as to only harm you to a manageable degree? Is the stress distributed over time so as to only harm you to a manageable degree? Do you have sufficient time to recover from the harm and gain from the stress? Is there variety and diversity of the amount of stress?

Adapt and survive, or evolve and thrive

Adaptation is about ‘fitness to’, which commonly occurs in the moment, while evolution is about ‘unfolding from’, which commonly occurs over time. Evolution generally follows from adaptation, where adaptation is more about confronting and responding to reality while evolution is more about embracing and gaining from reality.

Did you just get over it, or did you gain from it?

Consider any past situation and your interaction with it and experience of it. What, how, and why did you gain or lose? Did you merely confront the situation with a response or did you embrace it for gain? Did you merely adjust your interaction with it and experience of it by shifting how you used your existing qualities, or did you develop new ways of interacting and experiencing it by building new qualities? Was the stress acute enough and distributed over time? Was there enough time to recover? These are fundamental question that distinguish between adapting and surviving, and evolving and thriving. 

Antifragility and the growth mindset

If you’re confronting, responding or adjusting by shifting how you use your qualities, you are adapting and surviving and are thus more agile. If you are embracing, gaining or developing by building new qualities, you are evolving and thriving and are thus more antifragile (Note: similar to growth mindset). If you fall into neither of these categories, you might be avoiding reality. 

Systems with concentrated sources of randomness

A system confronting concentrated sources of randomness is fragile and a system confronting distributed sources of randomness is antifragile. 

Errors - love vs hate

The fragile hates mistakes and makes irreversible, large errors while the antifragile loves mistakes and produces reversible, small errors.

Antifragility is embracing reality and ensuring aliveness

Embracing reality 

Embracing reality means seeking opportunities to thrive, having an empirical worldview and using heuristics regarding external dynamics between stakeholders and reality. Having an empirical worldview involves understanding the world through our experience of reality rather than understanding the world through a hypothetical model or theory. Heuristics involve simple, practical, expedient and easy-to-apply rules of thumb for interacting with and understanding reality that are accepted to be imperfect. Given that we can’t understand everything about reality, heuristics allow us to focus on nuances rather than having to keep all details in mind. Details and precision alone don’t offer certainty. Idealized rules not grounded in reality causes fragility. 

How entrepreneurs use antifragility

An entrepreneur experiment with options to confront disorder. Entrepreneurs are always exploring and seeking opportunities to enable them to thrive; when they encounter disorder and sufficiently struggle, they consider their options and experiment, making small and reversible errors that cause acute stress, distributed over time, with ample recovery time, to enable them to learn and grow. 

Ensuring aliveness

Ensuring aliveness means seeking experiences to evolve, having an essential worldview and using heuristics regarding internal dynamics between stakeholders.

Your mental models of the world should be minimal than elaborate

Having an essential worldview involves understanding the world through a minimal model of reality rather than an elaborate model. We should derive minimal models with an essential set of rules and elaborate them through a sense of aliveness. Under- or over-elaborated worldviews cause fragility. Having too few or too many heuristics cause fragility. 

Adventurers = antifragile

Adventurers are small, non-specialized and independent. Adventurers are always exploring and seeking experiences from which to evolve; individually, they don’t specialize and are very independent, and collectively they don’t compromise by specializing or becoming dependent, instead becoming redundant and sharing power. Adventurers enhance antifragility.

Antifragility = intersection of embracing reality and ensuring aliveness

The essence of antifragility is a delicate dance between embracing reality and ensuring aliveness, where disorder or stress is at the intersection. Reality influences aliveness and aliveness influences reality. The ‘wrong’ intermingling of reality and aliveness can ultimately lead to death and the ‘right’ intermingling can lead to growth and being alive.

Cycles of ‘death’ and renewal gives antifragility

The more adaptive cycles (transitions between death and renewal) an entity go through, the more antifragile it is.