Reading this article from NY Times got me thinking about all the cognitive biases we might be bringing into this coronavirus situation, and how that shapes how to misjudge the risks. We react reflexively instead of responding rationally due to cognitive biases like:

? Availability heuristic/cascade

We tend to remember and perceive a situation by what information is most available, and not tend to seek out what’s not shown. Constant seeing/hearing bad news and fatalities creates an outsized perception, when there’s actually much good news that’s unheard or under-reported. Like how we tend to take the first search result from Google as truth. Availability cascade is particularly apparent in social media, where it tends to over-amplify the intensity and perceived seriousness/truth of certain messages as it gets viral and shared and re-shared over and over. 

What you can do:

• Seek out good news of mild cases, or people healing and getting discharged.
• Compare good news side by side with fatalities and bad news.
• Avoid partaking in over-amplifying bad new by not forwarding, re-sharing or retweeting too much. Balance it out by re-sharing more good news!
• Limit your consumption of news especially about the virus to small windows of time, instead of all day
• If certain images or content are especially triggering for you, mute certain keywords (for instance you can do this on Twitter) or block certain sites using browser extensions

? Confirmation bias

Just reading what you feared most, instead of seeking all sides of the coin. We tend to want to reduce cognitive dissonance and continually consume stuff that agrees with our worldview. Like they say, repeat something often enough, even something false can become taken as truth. 

What you can do:

• Intentionally seek out possible alternative hypotheses or information that challenge your point of view. 
• Follow the science – seek out the best available research and data as much as possible.
• Avoid news sources that sensationalise or politicize messages. It doesn’t help you know how to respond but gives you more (wrong) reasons to panic. These are opportune times for political tribes to hijack the situation to their benefit.

?‍? False appeal to authority

In such trying times, everyone becomes a expert and has an opinion, so who should you listen to? Your retiree uncle who’s educated by most standards, or a healthcare expert with wartime stories battling SARS? Not all doctors are specialized in the virology nor have experience in them. Celebrities are certainly authorities in their own fields but not authorities in the science and healthcare systems.

What you can do:

• Don’t just take someone’s word for it, even if he/she sounds like knowledgeable. Do your own research as best you can, and make up your own mind.
• Avoid opinions, hearsay and rumours. Stick to credible sources and balanced commentaries. 
• Hear from experts who had real experience dealing with the coronavirus now, or with past pathogens like SARS and H1N1, not just anyone with a “virology/pathology” or “Dr” tagged to their name. 

? Dread aversion

We seek to avoid pain, and emotional pain like dread of the unknown makes us react instead of respond. Truth is, most people know very little about the virus, even scientists and institutions like the WHO. That uncertainty can be uncomfortable for most and we might over-compensate or respond in a bid to re-gain control. Good point is panic buying and stockpiling.

What you can do:

• Find out more, read balanced reports, follow the science so that the unknown becomes known.
• Focus on healthy/wholesome things you can influence and control, like handwashing often, avoiding crowds.
• Support each other for emotional solace.

? Novelty effect

The more novel, the more powerful the perceived intensity of it. Humans are hardwired to pay more attention to contrast or the unusual amidst a sea of sameness. This virus is certainly very new—it even has novel in its name—and while novelty tends to be phrased seen as interesting or exciting, the other side of the coin can be scary and distressing. 

What you can do:

• Read up, know more about it, and see how we has responded and fared in the past to similar viruses like H1N1